A method for detecting and responding to disturbances in a HVAC system using a noisy measurement signal and a signal filter is provided. The method includes detecting a deviation in the noisy measurement signal, resetting the filter in response to a detected deviation exceeding a noise threshold, filtering the noisy measurement signal using the signal filter to determine an estimated state value, and determining that a disturbance has occurred in response to the estimated state value crossing a disturbance threshold. In some embodiments, the method further includes performing one or more control actions in response to the detection of a disturbance.