Vibration amplitudes are recorded as a function of rotation speed and of frequency and the data is analyzed to estimate a noise floor amplitude threshold for each of a plurality of different speed and frequency sub-ranges. On the basis of training data known to be normal speed-frequency areas which contain significant spectral content in normal operation are deemed “known significant spectral content”, so that during monitoring of new data points which correspond to significant vibration energy at speeds and frequencies different from the known significant spectral content can be deemed “novel significant spectral content” and form the basis for an alert. The estimation of the noise floor is based on a probabilistic analysis of the data in each speed-frequency area and from this analysis an extreme value distribution expressing the probability that any given sample is noise is obtained.