A system and method for prognostic health monitoring of thermal barrier coatings is provided. The system may comprise monitoring a thermal barrier coated gas turbine engine component, and measuring the infrared radiation emitting from the component. The measured thermal radiation data may be analyzed and compared to known material thermal radiation data in order to determine the health of the thermal barrier coating. The compiled comparison results may be compared against a historical statistical study to then determine the overall health of the thermal barrier coating. The system may comprise generating a health monitoring alert in response to the health of the thermal barrier coating indicating an imminent failure.