Various forms are directed to a method for operating an ultrasonic surgical instrument. The ultrasonic surgical instrument may be activated by generating a drive signal provided to the ultrasonic drive system to drive the end effector. A plurality of input variables may be applied to a multi-variable model to generate a multi-variable model output, where the multi-variable model output corresponds to an effect of the ultrasonic instrument on tissue. The plurality of input variables may comprise at least one variable describing the drive signal and at least one variable describing a property of the ultrasonic surgical instrument. When the multi-variable model output reaches a threshold value, feedback may be generated indicating a corresponding state of at least one of the ultrasonic surgical instrument and tissue acted upon by the ultrasonic surgical instrument.