公开(公告)号：US06799124B2

公开(公告)日：2004-09-28

申请号：US10011454

申请日：2001-11-29

申请人： Robert K. Perdue ,  Kenneth R. Balkey ,  Philip J. Kotwicki ,  Robert F. Keating

发明人： Robert K. Perdue ,  Kenneth R. Balkey ,  Philip J. Kotwicki ,  Robert F. Keating

IPC分类号： G01B344

CPC分类号： G06Q10/06

摘要： A probabilistic method for optimizing the inspection of a heat exchanger that determines the maximum number of degraded tubes that can be permitted to remain in service for a contemplated interval of time without exceeding an allowable probability of a tube burst, based upon Extreme Value Probability Distribution theory. The method also determines the minimum number of tubes that need to be inspected to establish that no more than the determined maximum number of degraded tubes will be permitted to remain in service for the contemplated interval of time based upon Bayesian Acceptance Sampling Theory.

摘要翻译： 一种概率方法，用于优化热交换器的检查，该热交换器基于极值概率分布理论，确定可以允许在预定的时间间隔内保持使用的劣化管的最大数量，而不超过管爆裂的容许概率。 。 该方法还确定需要检查的管的最小数目，以确定不超过所确定的降解管的最大数量将被允许在基于贝叶斯验收采样理论的预期时间间隔内保持服务。

公开(公告)号：US08571911B1

公开(公告)日：2013-10-29

申请号：US10298157

申请日：2002-11-15

申请人： Theodore A. Meyer ,  Robert K. Perdue ,  Warren H. Bamford ,  Edward Terek ,  G. Gary Elder ,  Joel Woodcock

发明人： Theodore A. Meyer ,  Robert K. Perdue ,  Warren H. Bamford ,  Edward Terek ,  G. Gary Elder ,  Joel Woodcock

IPC分类号： G06Q10/00

CPC分类号： G06Q10/04 ,  G06Q10/06 ,  G06Q10/20 ,  G06Q50/06 ,  Y04S10/54

摘要： An improved method of selecting and planning the performance of various maintenance activities on a facility such as a nuclear power plant includes determining the net present value of a number of future net savings that are expected to result from performance of the maintenance activity at a given time, and selecting and planning the maintenance activities in a fashion that maximizes net present value. The method includes, for each of a number of components and a number of time periods, determining a change in the probability that a component will fail within a time period, with the change resulting from an assumption that a maintenance activity is performed. The change in probability is multiplied with the losses associated with a failure in order to determine a gross savings from which costs are subtracted to determine net savings. The probabilities of failure may be determined from a probability failure model that has been derived from multiple sets of failure data that are characterized by Weibull distributions and are mathematically combined according to Bayes' Theorem. The maintenance activities may also be optimized according to a number of budget figures. An apparatus for performing the method is also disclosed.

摘要翻译： 选择和规划在诸如核电厂等设施的各种维护活动的性能的改进方法包括确定预期在给定时间执行维护活动所产生的未来净节约数量的净现值 ，并以最大限度提高净现值的方式选择和规划维护活动。 该方法包括对于多个组件和多个时间段中的每一个，确定组件在一段时间内将失败的可能性的变化，并且由执行维护活动的假设引起的改变。 概率的变化与失败相关的损失相乘，以确定减去成本的总节省量，以确定净节约。 故障概率可以从已经从以威布尔分布为特征的多组故障数据派生出来的概率故障模型确定，并根据贝叶斯定理进行数学组合。 还可以根据若干预算数字优化维护活动。 还公开了一种用于执行该方法的装置。