公开(公告)号：US20170114617A1

公开(公告)日：2017-04-27

申请号：US15311501

申请日：2015-04-29

Applicant: APACHE CORPORATION

Inventor： David FULFORD

IPC: E21B41/00 ,  G06F17/18 ,  E21B43/00

CPC classification number: E21B41/0092 ,  E21B43/00 ,  G06F17/18 ,  G06G7/57

Abstract: A method for optimizing a well production forecast includes a) inputting initial production rate measurements made at selected times, b) inputting probability distributions to estimate production forecast model parameters, c) generating an initial forecast of fluid production rates and total produced fluid volumes using a selected production forecast model, d) at a time after a last one of the selected times, comparing the initial forecast with actual production rate and total produced fluid volume measurements to generate an error measurement, e) adjusting parameters of the selected production forecast model to minimize the error measurement, thereby generating an adjusted production forecast model, f) repeating (d) and (e) for a plurality of iterations to generate a plurality of production forecast models each having a determined likelihood of an error measurement and displaying the plurality of production forecast models with respect to likelihood of error.