Abstract:
Solar farms and methods for forecasting solar farm performance are provided. A method may include, for example, the steps of analyzing in a computing device at least one historic or estimated usage parameter and at least one design limit parameter, and determining an estimated failure probability for at least one solar module of the solar farm based on the at least one historic or estimated usage parameter and at least one design limit parameter. A method may further include, for example, the steps of receiving in the computing device at least one real time usage parameter, and calculating an updated failure probability based on the estimated failure probability and the least one real time usage parameter.