摘要:
A system, method and computer program product are provided for performing a contingent claim valuation of a combination option including one or more multi-stage contingent claims, and an early-launch contingent claim. The method may include determining a first value representing payoffs attributable to exercise of the early-launch contingent claim at a selected decision point; and a second value representing payoffs the attributable to exercise of the multi-stage contingent claim(s) at respective decision point(s), and a contingent claim at an expiration exercise point. The first and/or second values may be determined based upon a respective present value distribution of contingent future value and a respective present value of an exercise price, the present values including a respective distribution and exercise price discounted according to first and second discount rates, respectively. A value of the contingent claim may then be determined based upon the first value and/or the second value.
摘要:
A system, method and computer program product are provided for determining a minimum future benefits value for exercising a contingent claim of an option. The method may include determining a present value distribution of contingent future benefits at an expiration exercise point, and present values of respective exercise prices at the expiration exercise point and one or more decision points before that point. Determining these present value distribution and present values may include discounting a distribution and respective values according to first and second discount rates, respectively. The method may also include repeatedly determining, for a plurality of forecasted asset values at a selected decision point, respective values based upon the present value distribution and the present values, where the respective values may be conditioned on the forecasted asset values. A forecasted asset value that maximizes the value may then be selected.
摘要:
A system, method and computer program product are provided for determining a minimum asset value for exercising a contingent claim of an option. The method may include determining a present value conditional distribution of contingent future benefits attributable to the exercise of a contingent claim, including conditioning a distribution of contingent future benefits on an estimated minimum asset value, and discounting the distribution according to a first discount rate. Similarly, the method may include determining present values of respective exercise prices required to exercise one or more contingent claims, including discounting respective exercise prices according to a second discount rate. A conditional value may then be determined based upon the present value conditional distribution and the present values of respective exercise prices, and may be repeated along with determining a present value conditional distribution for different estimated minimum asset values until the conditional value equals approximately zero.
摘要:
A system, method and computer program product are provided for determining a minimum future benefits value for exercising a contingent claim of an option. The method may include determining present value distribution(s) of contingent future value and present value(s) of respective exercise price(s) at an expiration exercise point and/or one or more decision points before that point. Determining these present value distribution(s) and present value(s) may include discounting respective distribution(s) and value(s) according to first and second discount rates, respectively. The method may also include repeatedly determining, for a plurality of candidate minimum asset values at a selected decision point, respective values based upon one or more of the present value distribution(s) and one or more of the present value(s), where the respective values may be conditioned on the candidate minimum asset values. A candidate minimum asset value that maximizes the value may then be selected.
摘要:
A system, method and computer program product are provided for performing a contingent claim valuation of a multi-stage option including a plurality of contingent claims exercisable at a plurality of respective exercise points including one or more exercise points before an expiration exercise point. The method may include determining a present value distribution of contingent future benefits attributable to the exercise of the contingent claim at the expiration exercise point, including discounting a distribution of contingent future benefits according to a first discount rate; and determining present values of exercise prices required to exercise the contingent claim at respective exercise points, including discounting exercise prices at respective exercise points according to a second discount rate that need not equal the first discount rate. A value of the contingent claim may then be determined based upon the present value distribution of contingent future benefits and the present values of exercise prices.
摘要:
A system, method and computer program product are provided for determining a minimum future benefits value for exercising a contingent claim of an option. The method may include determining a present value distribution of contingent future benefits at an expiration exercise point, and present values of respective exercise price(s) at the expiration exercise point and one or more decision points before that point, including discounting a respective distribution and values according to first and second discount rates, respectively. The method may also include defining a value as a function of a variable asset value at a selected decision point, the value being determinable based upon the present value distribution and present values, where the present value distribution may be correlated with the asset value. The function may then be solved for a root thereof, the root being selected as a minimum asset value.
摘要:
A system, method and computer program product are provided for performing a contingent claim valuation of an early-launch option including a contingent claim exercisable at one of a plurality of decision points including one or more decision points before an expiration exercise point. The method may include determining first and second values representing payoffs attributable to exercise of a contingent claim at a selected decision point before the expiration exercise point, and at the expiration exercise point, respectively. The first and/or second values may be determined based upon respective present value distribution of contingent future value and a respective present value of an exercise price, the present values including a respective distribution and exercise price discounted according to first and second discount rates, respectively. A value of the contingent claim may then be determined based upon the first value and/or the second value.
摘要:
A method includes providing a plurality of component modules in a spreadsheet environment. Each component module is capable of modeling a portion of an event and includes at least one process. Each component module can be accessed independent of the other component modules, and at least one component module includes at least one input and at least one component module includes at least one output. The inputs and the outputs can be linked to thereby model the event. Thereafter, the processes of the component modules can be performed to simulate the event.
摘要:
A method is provided that includes modeling demand and/or future supply for a good in a differentiated market. In accordance with the method, demand/supply in a differentiated market is modeled by first modeling demand and/or supply for a good in a non-differentiated market based upon a price sensitivity distribution of a unit purchase of the good, as well as a market potential distribution of a number of units of the good in a market associated with the good. Thereafter, the model of demand and/or supply in the non-differentiated market is integrated to thereby model demand and/or supply for a good in a differentiated market. The method can further include modeling cost and/or profitability of the good in a differentiated market. Profitability can be modeled based upon the demand model and the cost model for the differentiated market.
摘要:
Systems, methods and computer program products for determining a learning curve value and modeling an associated profitability of a good are provided. According to one method of determining a learning curve value, recurring costs of producing each unit of the good are modeled as a function of potential learning curve values. Nonrecurring costs of producing each unit of the good are then modeled as a function of potential learning curve values. Next, the learning curve value is determined based upon the recurring costs model and the nonrecurring costs value such that the sum of the recurring costs and nonrecurring costs at the determined learning curve value is minimized over the potential learning curve values.