公开(公告)号：US08341065B2

公开(公告)日：2012-12-25

申请号：US11855085

申请日：2007-09-13

申请人： Henry G. Berg ,  Todd A. Proebsting

发明人： Henry G. Berg ,  Todd A. Proebsting

IPC分类号： G06Q40/00

CPC分类号： G06Q40/04

摘要： A user participates in trading securities in a prediction market which represent different outcomes of an event, using an interface which allows the user to understand a trade in terms of a bet. The interface also allows the user to explore different bet amounts while receiving feedback on potential payoffs in real time. In one approach, a tool is used which is moved in one direction by the user to indicate a larger trade for an outcome, or in the opposite direction to indicate a larger trade against the outcome. A bet for an outcome can be translated into a purchase of a corresponding security which represents the outcome. A bet against a particular outcome can be translated into a purchase of securities which represents all other outcomes. The user interfaces hides complexities of the market from the user while surfacing relevant information.

摘要翻译： 用户在预测市场中参与交易证券，代表事件的不同结果，使用允许用户了解投注方面的交易的界面。 该界面还允许用户在实时收到有关潜在收益的反馈时，探索不同的投注金额。 在一种方法中，使用一种工具，其由用户在一个方向上移动以指示较大的结果交易，或者相反的方向指示针对结果的更大的交易。 结果的赌注可以转换为代表结果的相应证券的购买。 对特定结果的赌注可以转换为购买代表所有其他结果的证券。 用户界面在覆盖相关信息的同时隐藏市场的复杂性。

公开(公告)号：US08229824B2

公开(公告)日：2012-07-24

申请号：US11855079

申请日：2007-09-13

申请人： Henry G. Berg ,  Todd A. Proebsting

发明人： Henry G. Berg ,  Todd A. Proebsting

IPC分类号： G06Q40/00

CPC分类号： G06Q40/04 ,  G06Q30/06 ,  G06Q40/00 ,  G06Q40/06

摘要： Users participate in an estimate contest and a prediction market for forecasting an outcome of a future event. Data from the estimate contest and the prediction market can be combined to obtain accurate information about overall group beliefs and individual or sub-groups beliefs. In the estimate contest, users provide estimated probabilities of occurrence for different possible outcomes of the event. Trades can be proposed, or automatically executed, based on differences between the user's estimated probabilities and probabilities obtained from a prediction market in which the user can buy and sell securities which represent the different outcomes. For example, a buying opportunity may be present when the user's estimated probability exceeds the prediction market's probability. Further, the user can express a risk level which is factored into the proposed trades.

摘要翻译： 用户参与预测比赛和预测市场，以预测未来事件的结果。 来自估计比赛和预测市场的数据可以结合起来，以获得有关整体团体信念和个人或分组信念的准确信息。 在估计比赛中，用户提供事件的不同可能结果的发生概率。 可以根据用户的估计概率和从预测市场获得的概率之间的差异来提出或自动执行交易，其中用户可以在其中购买和销售代表不同结果的证券。 例如，当用户的估计概率超过预测市场的概率时，可能存在购买机会。 此外，用户可以表达在建议交易中被考虑的风险水平。

公开(公告)号：US07880741B2

公开(公告)日：2011-02-01

申请号：US11855076

申请日：2007-09-13

申请人： Todd A. Proebsting ,  Henry G. Berg

发明人： Todd A. Proebsting ,  Henry G. Berg

IPC分类号： G06T11/20

CPC分类号： G06T11/203

摘要： A user interface allows a user to freehand draw a probability density curve, or to select from predetermined probability densities, such as a normal distribution. The probability density represents the user's opinion regarding the probability of occurrence for different outcomes of a future event. The user can easily manipulate the shape of the probability density by dragging portions of the curve using an input device, such as to change the mean or standard deviation. Further, a scoring rule is applied to the probability density so that an updated score is displayed as the probability density is manipulated. The probability density can be input to an estimate contest or a prediction market, for instance. The user interface can also allow the user to freehand draw a scoring curve from which a probability density can be computed based on a scoring rule.

摘要翻译： 用户界面允许用户徒手绘制概率密度曲线，或从预定的概率密度（例如正态分布）中进行选择。 概率密度表示用户对未来事件的不同结果的发生概率的意见。 用户可以通过使用输入装置拖动曲线的部分来容易地操纵概率密度的形状，例如改变平均值或标准偏差。 此外，将计分规则应用于概率密度，使得当操纵概率密度时显示更新得分。 例如，可以将概率密度输入到估计比赛或预测市场。 用户界面还可以允许用户徒手画出一个评分曲线，根据评分规则可从中计算概率密度。

公开(公告)号：US20090073174A1

公开(公告)日：2009-03-19

申请号：US11855076

申请日：2007-09-13

申请人： Henry G. Berg ,  Todd A. Proebsting

发明人： Henry G. Berg ,  Todd A. Proebsting

IPC分类号： G06T11/20

CPC分类号： G06T11/203

摘要： A user interface allows a user to freehand draw a probability density curve, or to select from predetermined probability densities, such as a normal distribution. The probability density represents the user's opinion regarding the probability of occurrence for different outcomes of a future event. The user can easily manipulate the shape of the probability density by dragging portions of the curve using an input device, such as to change the mean or standard deviation. Further, a scoring rule is applied to the probability density so that an updated score is displayed as the probability density is manipulated. The probability density can be input to an estimate contest or a prediction market, for instance. The user interface can also allow the user to freehand draw a scoring curve from which a probability density can be computed based on a scoring rule.

摘要翻译： 用户界面允许用户徒手绘制概率密度曲线，或从预定的概率密度（例如正态分布）中进行选择。 概率密度表示用户对未来事件的不同结果的发生概率的意见。 用户可以通过使用输入装置拖动曲线的部分来容易地操纵概率密度的形状，例如改变平均值或标准偏差。 此外，将计分规则应用于概率密度，使得当操纵概率密度时显示更新得分。 例如，可以将概率密度输入到估计比赛或预测市场。 用户界面还可以允许用户徒手画出一个评分曲线，根据评分规则可从中计算概率密度。