The invention discloses a high-speed railway train arrival time prediction method based on a scheduling command system. The high-speed railway train arrival time prediction method comprises the following steps that historical data of the scheduling command system is subjected to standardized treatment, a space-time state data processing model is constructed based on a block section and a train discretization trajectory, the space-time data of train operation is extracted and then the data is subjected to standardizing treatment; the historical driving data after standardized treatment is analyzed, and operation time parameters of the block sections of various types of trains in the actual operation environment are estimated; and using the estimated operation time parameters of the block sections and combining with the real-time operation environment state and train state, the signal state in the future period of time can be predicted, and finally, the prediction of the arrival time ofthe train is realized through the mutual constraint and interaction relationship between the train and the signal state. According to the method, the accuracy of the prediction result can be improved,and the reliability of the prediction result is ensured.