Systems and methods are provided for determining a temperature of a thermal system that includes fluid conduits. A sensor monitors a current state of the temperature. A controller receives a signal from the sensor that is representative of the current state; determines a flow in the fluid conduits; determines a noise covariance of the thermal system; processes a thermal model of the thermal system; predicts a next-step state of the parameter at a time after the current state; and corrects the next-step state based, at least in-part, on the noise covariance resulting in a corrected next-step state.