A model predictive maintenance system for building equipment including an equipment controller to operate the building equipment to affect a variable state or condition in a building. The system includes an operational cost predictor to predict a cost of operating the building equipment over a duration of an optimization period, a maintenance cost predictor to predict a cost of performing maintenance on the building equipment, and a cost incentive manager to determine whether any cost incentives are available and, in response to a determination that cost incentives are available, identify the cost incentives. The system includes an objective function optimizer to optimize an objective function to predict a total cost associated with the building equipment over the duration of the optimization period. The objective function includes the predicted cost of operating the building equipment, the predicted cost of performing maintenance on the building equipment, and, if available, the cost incentives.