A system comprising a computer-readable storage medium storing at least one program and a method for determining, tracking, and anticipating risk in a manufacturing facility are presented. In example embodiments, the method includes generating a risk data model for the manufacturing facility based on correlations between historical staffing conditions of the manufacturing facility and deviations from existing manufacturing procedures. The method further includes receiving projected operational data that includes information related to anticipated future staffing conditions of the manufacturing facility. The method further includes calculating a risk score based on the projected operational data using the risk data model. The method further includes causing presentation of a user interface that includes a display of the risk score.