A control system includes one or more sensors configured to generate sensor data relating to building equipment. The sensor data includes first sensor data collected during a first time period and second sensor data collected during a second time period. The control system also includes a controller configured to use the first sensor data to generate one or more first model coefficients for a model for the building equipment. The controller is also configured to use the second sensor data to generate one or more second model coefficients for the model, generate a test statistic by comparing the one or more first model coefficients and the one or more second model coefficients, compare the test statistic with a value, and automatically identify a change relating to the building equipment in response to the test statistic exceeding the value.