A heating, ventilation, and/or air conditioning (HVAC) system includes a conditioning system configured to condition a return air flow directed through the HVAC system and a control system configured to determine a difference value between an operating parameter value of the return air flow and a sensed operating parameter value of a space serviced by the HVAC system, retrieve a stored target operating parameter value of the space, and operate the HVAC system based on the difference value, the stored target operating parameter value, or both.