Embodiments of the present invention relate to methods and apparatuses for determining leading indicators and/or for modeling one or more time series. For example, in some embodiments, a method is provided that includes: (a) receiving first data indicating the value of a total income amount for a plurality of consumers over a period of time; (b) receiving second data indicating the value of a total debt amount for a plurality of consumers over a period of time; (c) selecting a consumer leverage time series that compares the total income amount to the total debt amount over a period of time; (d) modeling the consumer leverage time series based at least partially on the first and second data; (e) determining, using a processor, the value of the cycle component for a particular time; and (f) outputting an indication of the value of the cycle component for the particular time.