A method for forecasting an environmental event/a type of environmental event includes acquiring at least one test data set of at least one behavioural and/or physiological parameter of a population of animals; generating a test profile based on said at least one test data set, representing behaviour and/or physiological status of the population of animals; calculating a ratio between the test profile and a first reference profile; and setting an alert, if said ratio reaches a predefined threshold value. A system for forecasting an environmental event/a type of environmental event employs at least one data acquisition unit configured to acquire at least one data set of at least one behavioural and/or physiological parameter of a population of animals; at least one profile generation unit configured to generate at least one first reference profile and/or at least one test profile wherein each profile is based on at least one data set; at least one ratio calculation unit configured to calculate at least one ratio between the at least one test profile and one of the at least one first reference profile; at least one alert unit configured to raise an alert if at least one of the at least one calculated ratio reaches a predefined threshold value.