An incident management system in a public transit network receives incident data collected by one or more sensors of the transit network, segments a display screen into multiple cells so that each of the cells corresponds a route segment and a time segment in which one or more vehicles in the transit network traveled, and outputs a graphical representation for each cell. The sensors may be installed on a vehicle to detect various types of incidents such as disturbance, safety and mechanical issues, or any incidents external to the vehicle. The graphical representation may be indicative of the estimated future incident rate for the route segment and the time segment to which each cell corresponds, and displayed by a color scale in a heatmap. The system may estimate the incident rate using a linear model that can be obtained in a training process.