A reliability prediction method includes: calculating a change of each of a plurality of alloy phases at a bonding portion between an electrode pad and a bonding wire; setting a generation of a metal oxide phase caused by a corrosion reaction, based on an initial crack structure of the bonding portion; calculating an elastic strain energy at each of specified portions of the bonding portion; setting a progress of a crack, based on the elastic strain energy at each of the specified portions; and predicting a lifetime of the semiconductor device, based on a length of the crack due to the progress of the crack.