Provided is a porous electrode substrate having excellent thickness precision, gas permeability and conductivity, handling efficiency, low production costs and a high carbonization rate during carbonization. Also provided are a method for manufacturing such a substrate, a precursor sheet and fibrillar fiber used for forming such a substrate, along with a membrane electrode assembly and a polymer electrolyte fuel cell that contain such a substrate. The method for manufacturing a porous electrode substrate includes step (1) for manufacturing a precursor sheet in which short carbon fibers (A) and carbon fiber precursor (b) are dispersed, and step (2) for carbonizing the precursor sheet, and the volume contraction rate of carbon fiber precursor (b) in step (2) is 83% or lower. The present invention also relates to a porous electrode substrate obtained by such a manufacturing method, a precursor sheet and fibrillar fiber used for forming the substrate, along with a membrane electrode assembly and a polymer electrolyte fuel cell containing the substrate.