Abstract:
Systems and methods for planning and optimizing air traffic flow within an airspace are provided. In one embodiment, a system (200) includes: (1) a stakeholder objective evaluation module (212) receiving stakeholder preferences from stakeholders having an interest in flight routing within the airspace during an operational planning period and stakeholder metrics as feedback input and outputting strategic and flight route settings for the airspace based on the stakeholder preferences and stakeholder metrics; (2) a strategic optimization module (204) receiving the strategic settings, creating an initial airspace state, and generating an updated airspace state using the strategic settings; (3) a route optimization module (202) receiving the flight route settings and selecting preferred routes for flights during the operational planning period using the route settings; and (4) a simulation module (206) receiving simulation settings including the airspace state and the preferred routes, simulating flights during the operational planning period, and outputting the stakeholder metrics for feed-back.
Abstract:
Hybrid-heuristic optimization of competing portfolios of flight paths for flights through one or more sectors of an airspace represented by an air traffic system. In one embodiment, a hybrid-heuristic optimization process (100) includes one or more heuristic based processes (110), a genetic optimization process (120), an evaluation process involving an approximation model (130), an optimal portfolio selection process (140) and a validation process involving simulation (150) of the air traffic system.
Abstract:
A method and system for fusing a collection of classifiers used for an automated insurance underwriting system and/or its quality assurance is described. Specifically, the outputs of a collection of classifiers are fused. The fusion of the data will typically result in some amount of consensus and some amount of conflict among the classifiers. The consensus will be measured and used to estimate a degree of confidence in the fused decisions. Based on the decision and degree of confidence of the fusion and the decision and degree of confidence of the production decision engine, a comparison module may then be used to identify cases for audit, cases for augmenting the training/test sets for re-tuning production decision engine, cases for review, or may simply trigger a record of its occurrence for tracking purposes. The fusion can compensate for the potential correlation among the classifiers. The reliability of each classifier can be represented by a static or dynamic discounting factor, which will reflect the expected accuracy of the classifier. A static discounting factor is used to represent a prior expectation about the classifier's reliability, e.g., it might be based on the average past accuracy of the model, while a dynamic discounting is used to represent a conditional assessment of the classifier's reliability, e.g., whenever a classifier bases its output on an insufficient number of points it is not reliable.
Abstract:
The systems and methods of the invention are directed to portfolio optimization and related techniques. For example, the invention provides a method for multi-objective portfolio optimization for use in investment decisions based on competing objectives and a plurality of constraints constituting a portfolio problem, the method comprising: performing a first multi-objective optimization process, based on competing objectives, to generate an efficient frontier of possible solutions; observing the generated efficient frontier; based on the observing, identifying an area of the efficient frontier in which there is a gap; and effecting a gap filling process by which the efficient frontier is supplemented in the area of the gap, the efficient frontier being used in investment decisioning.
Abstract:
A method for multi-objective deterioration accommodation using predictive modeling is disclosed. The method uses a simulated machine that simulates a deteriorated actual machine, and a simulated controller that simulates an actual controller. A multi-objective process is performed, based on specified control settings for the simulated controller and specified operational scenarios for the simulated machine controlled by the simulated controller, to generate a Pareto frontier-based solution space relating performance of the simulated machine to settings of the simulated controller, including adjustment to the operational scenarios to represent a deteriorated condition of the simulated machine. Control settings of the actual controller are adjusted, represented by the simulated controller, for controlling the actual machine, represented by the simulated machine, in response to a deteriorated condition of the actual machine, based on the Pareto frontier-based solution space, to maximize desirable operational conditions and minimize undesirable operational conditions while operating the actual machine in a region of the solution space defined by the Pareto frontier.
Abstract:
A method for multi-objective fault accommodation using predictive modeling is disclosed. The method includes using a simulated machine that simulates a faulted actual machine, and using a simulated controller that simulates an actual controller. A multi-objective optimization process is performed, based on specified control settings for the simulated controller and specified operational scenarios for the simulated machine controlled by the simulated controller, to generate a Pareto frontier-based solution space relating performance of the simulated machine to settings of the simulated controller, including adjustment to the operational scenarios to represent a fault condition of the simulated machine. Control settings of the actual controller are adjusted, represented by the simulated controller, for controlling the actual machine, represented by the simulated machine, in response to a fault condition of the actual machine, based on the Pareto frontier-based solution space, to maximize desirable operational conditions and minimize undesirable operational conditions while operating the actual machine in a region of the solution space defined by the Pareto frontier.
Abstract:
Systems and methods for optimizing a plurality of competing portfolios of logistical alternatives are disclosed. In one embodiment, where the competing portfolios of logistical alternatives are competing portfolios of flight paths, a method (1100) for optimizing a plurality of competing portfolios of logistical alternatives includes receiving (1102) competing flight path portfolios from one or more flight operation centers. Dominance criteria are applied (1104) to select a subset of the portfolios from the plurality of competing portfolios for further consideration. Multi-objective genetic optimization is applied (1106) to the subset of portfolios to identify an optimal portfolio among the plurality of competing portfolios of logistical alternatives. Where the method (1100) is undertaken by executing computer program code on at least one computer processor, information identifying the logistical alternatives included in the optimal portfolio may be output (1108) on an output device in communication with the computer processor.
Abstract:
Systems and methods for airspace demand prediction with improved sector level demand prediction are provided. In one embodiment, an air traffic demand prediction system (10) operable to predict demand within an airspace divided into sectors includes an expanded route predictor (14) operable to generate predicted two-dimensional expanded route information (40) associated with at least one requested flight (34), a trajectory modeler (16) operable to generate predicted four-dimensional expanded route information (46), a sector crossing predictor (18) operable to generate predicted sector crossing information (48), a departure time predictor (22) operable to generate predicted departure time information (54), and a demand modeler (62) operable to generate a demand model (28), the demand model (28) including predicted time intervals associated with the at least one requested flight indicating when it is expected to be present within one or more sectors of the airspace.
Abstract:
Methods and systems suitable for processing multiple trajectory modification requests received from multiple aircraft within an airspace. The methods include receiving multiple trajectory modification requests that are transmitted from multiple aircraft and request alterations of the altitudes, speeds and/or lateral routes thereof, sequentially performing conflict assessments on the multiple trajectory modification requests to determine if any of the multiple trajectory modification requests pose conflicts with the altitudes, speeds and lateral routes of any other of the multiple aircraft, placing in a computer memory data queue n trajectory modification requests of the multiple trajectory modification requests that are identified by the conflict assessments as posing conflicts, and periodically processing the queue to perform subsequent conflict assessments on the n trajectory modification requests to determine if any of the n trajectory modification requests still pose conflicts with the altitudes, speeds and lateral routes of any other of the multiple aircraft.
Abstract:
Methods and systems suitable for negotiating air traffic trajectory modification requests received from multiple aircraft that each has trajectory parameters. The methods include transmitting from at least a first aircraft a first trajectory modification request to alter the altitude, speed and/or lateral route thereof. A first conflict assessment is then performed to determine if the first trajectory modification request poses a conflict with the altitudes, speeds and lateral routes of other aircraft. If a conflict is not identified, the first trajectory modification request is granted and the first aircraft is notified of the first trajectory modification request being granted. Alternatively, if a conflict is identified, the first trajectory modification request is not granted and the first aircraft is notified thereof. If the first trajectory modification request was not granted, the first trajectory modification request is placed in a queue, which is periodically processed to perform subsequent conflict assessments.