摘要:
A product demand forecasting methodology is presented that applies daily weight values to a weekly forecast to determine daily forecasts for a product or service. The method determines daily weight values for use in forecasting current product sales by blending daily weight values calculated from historical demand data for both recent weeks and year-prior weeks. Recent weeks are used to account for recent correlations and alternation effects, and year-prior weeks are used to account for seasonality effects. The method automatically calculates a measure of significance for the daily weights calculated from the recent weeks and year-prior weeks. The significance of each week is applied as a weighting factor during the blending of recent weeks and year-prior daily weight values.
摘要:
A smart-card based system and methods to control access to a plurality of attractions within a geographical area. The system may include one or more reward terminals that are located at attractions and are configured to read smart cards presented to them and, assuming the card is valid for that location, allow the card holder to access the attraction. Each smart card may be programmed with a product code that defines the attractions at which the card may be used. Product codes may be stored in a central database along with a list of the attractions associated with the each product code. The list of attractions may be updated as desired, thereby updating and changing the attractions at which any given card may be used.
摘要:
Techniques for multi-variable analysis at an aggregate level are provided. Two or more datasets having different statistical data distributions and which are not capable of being aggregated are acquired. The values for variables in the two or more datasets are normalized to produce a single integrated dataset of normalized values. The normalized values are then used to produce a demand model that represents and integrates multiple disparate products or services from the two or more datasets into a single demand model.
摘要:
A voice command acquisition method and system for motor vehicles is improved in that noise source information is obtained directly from the vehicle system bus. Upon receiving an input signal with a voice command, the system bus is queried for one or more possible sources of a noise component in the input signal. In addition to vehicle-internal information (e.g., window status, fan blower speed, vehicle speed), the system may acquire external information (e.g., weather status) in order to better classify the noise component in the input signal. If the noise source is found to be a window, for example, the driver may be prompted to close the window. In addition, if the fan blower is at a high speed level, it may be slowed down automatically.
摘要:
In a navigation system, e.g., for a motor vehicle, for determining the route from a location of the navigation system to a destination point, the navigation system includes an output device for outputting the route and/or a direction indication that corresponds to the route, and an input device for inputting the destination point, graphics or images of selectable destination points being representable for the input of a destination point.
摘要:
An improved method and system for forecasting product demand using a causal methodology, based on multiple regression techniques. The causal method uses both historical and future values of causal factors for causal forecasting. Historical values are used to build a causal model, i.e., to determine the influence of the causal factors upon the demand for a product, and future values are used to generate demand uplifts which applied to an initial demand forecast based upon historical product demand. The improved causal method provides different processes for the calculation of demand uplifts associated with seasonal variables, such as temperature, than typical, non-seasonal causal variables, such as product price. Demand uplifts for seasonal variables are determined from the difference between a forecast value for the seasonal variable and an average of corresponding historical, prior-year, values of the seasonal variable, and demand uplifts for non-seasonal variables are determined from the difference between a forecast value for the non-seasonal variable and an average of recent values of the non-seasonal variable.
摘要:
An aggregate User Defined Function (UDF) processing used for multi-regression is provided. The aggregate UDF initializes storage space for multiple nodes of a database environment. Data is then extracted from a relational database and populated according to groupings on each of the nodes. Multiple rows or records are then processed to create a merge and multi-regression processed.
摘要:
An improved method for forecasting and modeling product demand for a product. The forecasting methodology employs a causal methodology, based on multiple regression techniques, to model the effects of various factors on product demand, and hence better forecast future patterns and trends, improving the efficiency and reliability of the inventory management systems. A product demand forecast is generated by blending forecast or expected values of the non-redundant causal factors together with corresponding regression coefficients determined through the analysis of historical product demand and factor information. The improved method provides for the saving and updating of previously calculated intermediate regression analysis results and regression coefficients, significantly reducing data transfer time and computational efforts required for additional regression analysis and coefficient determination.
摘要:
A forecast response factor (RF) determines how quickly product demand forecasts should react to recent changes in demand. When a product sales pattern changes (e.g., a sudden increase in product demand), RF is adjusted accordingly to adjust the forecast responsiveness. The present subject matter provides automatic calculation of the RF, based at least in part on the nature of the product sales (autocorrelation) and the status of recent forecasts (bias).
摘要:
A repeatability score is described for determining the quality and reliability of product sales data for generating seasonal demand forecasts. The repeatability scores are calculated from seasonal sales data stored in a data warehouse. Products are sorted based on their reliability scores such that those products that are highly seasonal and have a reliable year-to-year demand pattern are used to form initial or unique demand models. Products that are determined to be less reliable based on their repeatability score are added to the unique demand models through an iterative matching process or left out of the unique demand models.