公开(公告)号：US08396777B1

公开(公告)日：2013-03-12

申请号：US12478738

申请日：2009-06-04

申请人： Leslie R. Fine ,  Matthew J. Fogarty ,  Matthew Shore

发明人： Leslie R. Fine ,  Matthew J. Fogarty ,  Matthew Shore

IPC分类号： G06Q40/00

CPC分类号： G06Q10/04 ,  G06Q30/0202

摘要： This disclosure provides a database, methods and associated software to implement and manage a prediction market. By collecting individual predictions as a set of predicted outcomes, such as a range of outcomes, the principles presented herein permit aggregation of overlapping predictions to generate a cumulative probability distribution, effectively using “crowd wisdom” to build a probability model of an event. Through the use of “roll-up” and “roll-down” techniques, this disclosure provides a way of applying new information not only to an event being predicted, but also to the outcomes of other, related events. Conversion to a common probability distribution format may be used to simplify and accelerate mathematical operations, easing the burden in quickly calculating and updating a cumulative probability model for events in each affected dimension in the predicted market. These teachings may be applied to a wide variety of applications, including gaming, blog and opinion sites, spreadsheet programs, and date, logistics, accounting and other forecasting tools.

摘要翻译： 本公开提供了实现和管理预测市场的数据库，方法和相关软件。 通过将个人预测作为一组预测结果（例如一系列结果）收集，本文介绍的原则允许聚合重叠预测以生成累积概率分布，有效地使用群众智慧构建事件的概率模型。 通过使用汇总和下拉技术，本公开提供了一种不仅对正在预测的事件应用新信息的方式，而且还提供了其他相关事件的结果。 转换为普通概率分布格式可用于简化和加速数学运算，减轻了在预测市场中快速计算和更新每个受影响维度的事件的累积概率模型的负担。 这些教导可以应用于各种各样的应用，包括游戏，博客和舆论，电子表格程序，日期，物流，会计和其他预测工具。

公开(公告)号：US08583470B1

公开(公告)日：2013-11-12

申请号：US13284036

申请日：2011-10-28

申请人： Leslie R. Fine ,  Matthew J. Fogarty ,  Nanahari Phatak

发明人： Leslie R. Fine ,  Matthew J. Fogarty ,  Nanahari Phatak

IPC分类号： G06Q10/00

CPC分类号： G06Q40/04

摘要： The present disclosure provides a system that implements a prediction market, used for making forecasts and, more particularly, for extracting participant utility. One or more forecasts of a specific participant or subset of participants are taken, and a measure of divergence of these forecasts from a group as a whole (or for that matter, any group) is calculated. This divergence may then later be employed in the prediction market (e.g., for present or future forecasting). For example, if it is known that “sales managers” are consistently too liberal in forecasting product release dates than others within a company, this tendency may be compensated for or used in a variety of manners, such as automatically correcting predictions or forecasts for perceived error, automatically discarding or modifying predictions, or automatically generating “virtual” predictions for future events. Other actions may also be taken.

摘要翻译： 本公开提供了一种实现用于进行预测的预测市场的系统，更具体地，用于提取参与者实用性。 采用一个或多个参与者或参与者子集的预测，并计算这些预测与整个组（或任何组）的分歧。 然后可以在预测市场中（例如，对于当前或将来的预测）来使用这种差异。 例如，如果知道“销售经理”在预测产品发布日期方面一贯过于宽松，那么这种趋势可能会以各种方式得到补偿或使用，例如自动更正所感知的预测或预测 错误，自动丢弃或修改预测，或自动生成未来事件的“虚拟”预测。 也可采取其他行动。

公开(公告)号：US07742968B2

公开(公告)日：2010-06-22

申请号：US09858251

申请日：2001-05-15

申请人： Kemal Guler ,  Leslie R. Fine ,  Kay-Yut Chen ,  Alan H. Karp ,  Tongwei Liu ,  Hsiu-Khuern Tang ,  Fereydoon Safai ,  Ren Wu ,  Alex Zhang

发明人： Kemal Guler ,  Leslie R. Fine ,  Kay-Yut Chen ,  Alan H. Karp ,  Tongwei Liu ,  Hsiu-Khuern Tang ,  Fereydoon Safai ,  Ren Wu ,  Alex Zhang

IPC分类号： G06Q40/00

CPC分类号： G06Q30/08 ,  G06Q40/00 ,  G06Q40/04

摘要： A computer-implemented automated decision support system for designing an auction for a given item includes a structure extractor that estimates unknown elements of market structure of the auction based on auction characteristics data extracted from historical auctions for similar items and a bidding model matching the extracted auction characteristics data. The decision support system also includes a bidding behavior predictor that predicts bidding behaviors of bidders in the auction based on the estimated unknown elements of market structure and characteristics of the auction. In addition, the system includes an optimizer that employs an evaluation criterion to generate an evaluation of the auction based on (1) the estimated unknown elements of market structure and (2) the predicted bidding behavior of bidders. A method of providing an automated auction analysis is also described.

摘要翻译： 用于设计给定项目的拍卖的计算机实现的自动决策支持系统包括：结构提取器，其基于从类似物品的历史拍卖中提取的拍卖特征数据和与所提取的拍卖匹配的投标模型来估计拍卖的市场结构的未知元素 特征数据。 决策支持系统还包括投标行为预测器，其基于市场结构和拍卖特征的估计未知元素来预测投标者在拍卖中的投标行为。 另外，该系统还包括一个优化器，它采用评估标准来生成一个拍卖评估，该方法基于（1）市场结构的估计未知元素和（2）投标人的预测投标行为。 还描述了提供自动拍卖分析的方法。

公开(公告)号：US07590554B2

公开(公告)日：2009-09-15

申请号：US09976959

申请日：2001-10-11

申请人： Kay-Yut Chen ,  Leslie R. Fine ,  Bernardo A. Huberman

发明人： Kay-Yut Chen ,  Leslie R. Fine ,  Bernardo A. Huberman

IPC分类号： G06F17/30

CPC分类号： G06Q10/06 ,  G06Q10/063 ,  G06Q10/0635 ,  G06Q10/06393 ,  G06Q30/0202 ,  G06Q30/0203 ,  G06Q30/0204 ,  G06Q30/0206

摘要： The present invention is a novel methodology for predicting future outcomes that uses small numbers of individuals participating in an imperfect information market. Determining their individual characteristics and performing a nonlinear aggregation of their predictions, provides a probability assessment of the future outcome of an uncertain event. In one embodiment of the present invention the aggregated prediction is compared to both the objective probability of its occurrence and the performance of the market as a whole. In one embodiment, the present invention includes a forecasting process comprising, running an information market, extracting participant characteristics, performing a query process, and aggregating the participant characteristics and results of the query process. The information market is designed to elicit characteristics of the participants include participant risk inclination and ability to analyze information provided in the information market.

摘要翻译： 本发明是用于预测使用参与不完美信息市场的少数个体的未来结果的新颖方法。 确定其个人特征并对其预测进行非线性聚合，为不确定事件的未来结果提供概率评估。 在本发明的一个实施例中，将聚合预测与其出现的客观概率和整个市场的表现进行比较。 在一个实施例中，本发明包括预测过程，包括：运行信息市场，提取参与者特征，执行查询过程，以及聚合参与者特征和查询过程的结果。 信息市场旨在引发参与者的特征，包括参与者风险倾向和分析信息市场提供信息的能力。