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1.发明授权公开(公告)号：US08583470B1
公开(公告)日：2013-11-12
申请号：US13284036
申请日：2011-10-28
IPC分类号： G06Q10/00
CPC分类号： G06Q40/04
摘要： The present disclosure provides a system that implements a prediction market, used for making forecasts and, more particularly, for extracting participant utility. One or more forecasts of a specific participant or subset of participants are taken, and a measure of divergence of these forecasts from a group as a whole (or for that matter, any group) is calculated. This divergence may then later be employed in the prediction market (e.g., for present or future forecasting). For example, if it is known that “sales managers” are consistently too liberal in forecasting product release dates than others within a company, this tendency may be compensated for or used in a variety of manners, such as automatically correcting predictions or forecasts for perceived error, automatically discarding or modifying predictions, or automatically generating “virtual” predictions for future events. Other actions may also be taken.
摘要翻译： 本公开提供了一种实现用于进行预测的预测市场的系统，更具体地，用于提取参与者实用性。 采用一个或多个参与者或参与者子集的预测，并计算这些预测与整个组（或任何组）的分歧。 然后可以在预测市场中（例如，对于当前或将来的预测）来使用这种差异。 例如，如果知道“销售经理”在预测产品发布日期方面一贯过于宽松，那么这种趋势可能会以各种方式得到补偿或使用，例如自动更正所感知的预测或预测 错误，自动丢弃或修改预测，或自动生成未来事件的“虚拟”预测。 也可采取其他行动。
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公开(公告)号：US08396777B1
公开(公告)日：2013-03-12
申请号：US12478738
申请日：2009-06-04
IPC分类号： G06Q40/00
CPC分类号： G06Q10/04 , G06Q30/0202
摘要： This disclosure provides a database, methods and associated software to implement and manage a prediction market. By collecting individual predictions as a set of predicted outcomes, such as a range of outcomes, the principles presented herein permit aggregation of overlapping predictions to generate a cumulative probability distribution, effectively using “crowd wisdom” to build a probability model of an event. Through the use of “roll-up” and “roll-down” techniques, this disclosure provides a way of applying new information not only to an event being predicted, but also to the outcomes of other, related events. Conversion to a common probability distribution format may be used to simplify and accelerate mathematical operations, easing the burden in quickly calculating and updating a cumulative probability model for events in each affected dimension in the predicted market. These teachings may be applied to a wide variety of applications, including gaming, blog and opinion sites, spreadsheet programs, and date, logistics, accounting and other forecasting tools.
摘要翻译： 本公开提供了实现和管理预测市场的数据库，方法和相关软件。 通过将个人预测作为一组预测结果（例如一系列结果）收集，本文介绍的原则允许聚合重叠预测以生成累积概率分布，有效地使用群众智慧构建事件的概率模型。 通过使用汇总和下拉技术，本公开提供了一种不仅对正在预测的事件应用新信息的方式，而且还提供了其他相关事件的结果。 转换为普通概率分布格式可用于简化和加速数学运算，减轻了在预测市场中快速计算和更新每个受影响维度的事件的累积概率模型的负担。 这些教导可以应用于各种各样的应用，包括游戏，博客和舆论，电子表格程序，日期，物流，会计和其他预测工具。
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