公开(公告)号：US20170308934A1

公开(公告)日：2017-10-26

申请号：US15491187

申请日：2017-04-19

申请人： Economy Research Institute of State Grid Zhejiang Electric Power ,  State Grid Corporation of China ,  Hangzhou Yihe Electric Power Technology Information Co., LTD.

发明人： Weidong LIU ,  Min YU ,  Liang LINAG ,  Jun TONG ,  Fuyan LIU ,  Zhanghua CAI ,  Jia CHEN ,  Hui CHEN

IPC分类号： G06Q30/02 ,  G06Q40/06 ,  G06Q50/06

CPC分类号： G06Q30/0283 ,  G06Q30/0201 ,  G06Q40/06 ,  G06Q50/06

摘要： The present invention discloses a management method of power engineering cost, including: 1) collect and collate the historical power engineering data, and establish engineering sample database; 2) Explore the factors influencing power engineering cost and construct the cost factor associated topology; 3) identify the price transmission path; 4) Establish the power engineering cost change trend model based on the factor distribution on the price transmission path, and conduct training on the model combined with the historical data, to solve the set of cost change trend of the equipments and materials required in the current stage of engineering. By considering the effect of market price fluctuation on the price transmission of required equipments and materials, this invention can propose appropriate management control program for the next stage of engineering costs more clearly, further shrink the deviation of cost, reduce the investment risk of power engineering and improve the dynamic control system of power engineering.

公开(公告)号：US20170308966A1

公开(公告)日：2017-10-26

申请号：US15492460

申请日：2017-04-20

申请人： Economy Research Institute of State Grid Zhejiang Electric Power ,  State Grid Corporation of China

发明人： Huajun SHI ,  Yingtu MAO ,  Min YU ,  Liang LINAG ,  Jun TONG ,  Fuyan LIU ,  Zhanghua CAI ,  Jia CHEN ,  Hui CHEN

IPC分类号： G06Q50/06 ,  G06Q30/02 ,  G06Q40/06

CPC分类号： G06Q50/06 ,  G06Q30/0201 ,  G06Q30/0283 ,  G06Q40/06 ,  Y04S10/58 ,  Y04S50/14

摘要： A VAR-based post-evaluation and risk management and control method is disclosed herein. The power transmission engineering cost is broken down sub-item costs, and the stochastic behavior of sub-item costs is simulated by normal distribution, to determine the VaR of sub-item cost at a confidence, then the VaR and ratio of mean of sub-item costs are used as the weights of sub-item cost, to establish the post-evaluation model of sub-item cost, then according to the ratio of sub-item cost among total cost, a contribution degree index is established, and the main sub-item costs are screened according to the sequence of contribution degree index; then based on this, considering the constraint of risk rate interval and aiming at controlling the main sub-item cost within the allowable risk interval, a stochastic linear programming model is established; finally, Monte Carlo method is used to sample and simulate the random factors to solve the stochastic linear programming problem. The method provided herein can effectively perform evaluation on the risk of cost fluctuation, to achieve control over the cost within a risk interval.