Abstract:
Systems, methods, and computer-readable storage media that may be used to generate a Bayesian hierarchical model. One method includes generating a plurality of geographic regions by grouping one or more geographic sub-regions into each of the plurality of geographic regions. The method further includes receiving data for the geographic sub-regions, the data including responses, content inputs, content types, and location identifiers. The method further includes generating geo-level data from the received data by grouping the responses and content inputs of the received data based on a correlation of the location identifiers of the received data to the plurality of geographic regions. The method includes fitting a Bayesian hierarchical model based on at least the geo-level data, the content types, and the geographic regions and determining a content input mix for the content types for each geographic region based on the Bayesian hierarchical model and a content input constraint.
Abstract:
Embodiments disclosed provide new approaches for determining fractional attribution using aggregate advertising information. A channel weighting approach may derive the causal influence weight of any channel on conversions. In some embodiments, the approach may include arranging the conversion rate of each channel into different funnel stages, constructing aggregate-level data, and running a multi-stage regression computation using instrumental variables. This approach works with any number of different types of advertising channels, including online and offline channels, and provides the most accurate credit to each channel or sub-channel involved.
Abstract:
Systems, methods, and computer-readable storage media that may be used to generate a Bayesian hierarchical model. One method includes generating a plurality of geographic regions by grouping one or more geographic sub-regions into each of the plurality of geographic regions. The method further includes receiving data for the geographic sub-regions, the data including responses, content inputs, content types, and location identifiers. The method further includes generating geo-level data from the received data by grouping the responses and content inputs of the received data based on a correlation of the location identifiers of the received data to the plurality of geographic regions. The method includes fitting a Bayesian hierarchical model based on at least the geo-level data, the content types, and the geographic regions and determining a content input mix for the content types for each geographic region based on the Bayesian hierarchical model and a content input constraint.
Abstract:
Embodiments provide fractional attribution using aggregate-level information as well as user-level data. For example, aggregate data may be used to determine marginal conversion probabilities for individual attributes within each channel. For channels that have user-level data, the marginal conversion probabilities may be determined using user-level data associated with converted users and aggregate-level data associated with non-converting users. Different channels may have different attributes and the channels may be weighted, in one embodiment, via a causal analysis using instrumental variables. Each conversion path may be characterized by a set of attributes. Additionally, each conversion path may have touch points. The marginal conversion probabilities for the attributes may be combined to produce an importance weight for each touch point on a converting path. These importance weights can be normalized across the touch points on the converting path to obtain attribution results.
Abstract:
Embodiments disclosed provide technical details on fractional attribution using online advertising information. More specifically, embodiments disclosed herein use historical data to determine one or more conditional probabilities and assign credit weights to given events. In this way, fairer and more accurate attribution of conversions to particular events may be assigned.