A thermostat management server may include one or more processors and one or more memory devices comprising instructions that, when executed by the one or more processors, cause the one or more processors to perform operations comprising receiving information that characterizes energy usage associated with the plurality of thermostats, receiving parameters characterizing proposed future demand-response events, selecting a combination of thermostats from the plurality of thermostats for which the energy usage can be reduced, simulating a demand response event based on the parameters and using different weather conditions for the combination of the plurality of thermostats, generating statistical probabilities of meeting a plurality of capacity reduction levels based on the different weather conditions, selecting a capacity reduction level from the plurality of capacity reduction levels based on the statistical probabilities, and sending the capacity reduction level to the utility provider computer system.