A computer-implemented method may include obtaining, from a system using a middleware component of the system, run-time evidence of the system; applying the obtained run-time evidence to a Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG) Bayesian network to determine marginal probabilities for one or more nodes of the DAG Bayesian network, wherein the DAG Bayesian network comprises a plurality of nodes each representing states and faults of the system, wherein each node includes a parameterized conditional probability distribution, and wherein one or more of the nodes of the plurality of nodes specify a list of one or more safety goals and a safety value; determining which nodes representing faults have probabilities exceeding their specified safety value; and determining one or more risk mitigation techniques to activate for the determined nodes representing faults with probabilities exceeding their respective safety value.