Systems and methods may provide for conducting a reward determination for a plurality of sleep states to obtain a plurality of reward determinations with respect to a device. In addition, a sleep state may be selected for the device from the plurality of sleep states based at least in part on the plurality of reward determinations. In one example, false entry and missed opportunity probabilities may be determined for stochastic interrupts, wherein the reward determination is conducted based at least in part on the false entry and missed opportunity probabilities.