摘要:
Computer-implemented systems and methods are provided for implementing a dynamic model switching simulator that generates a plurality of simulations. A system and method generates a simulation comprising predictions over a plurality of time periods. Generating a simulation includes generating a first time period prediction using a first model of a first model type. Generating the plurality of subsequent time period predictions includes evaluating the model switching rule to identify whether to switch models for a subsequent time period prediction, generating the subsequent time period prediction using the first model if a switch of models is not identified, and generating the subsequent time period prediction using a second model of a second model type otherwise.
摘要:
Computer-implemented systems and methods are provided for generating a simulated forecast based on members of a pool of input risk factor variables. Certain members of the pool of input risk factor variables are identified as members of a first set of variables, and certain other members of the pool of input risk factor variables are identified as members of a second set of variables. A first simulation is generated via a first simulation method using the first set of variables, and a second simulation is generated via a second simulation method that differs from the first simulation method using the second set of variables. The first simulation and the second simulation are generated using correlations among variables in the first set of variables and variables in the second set of variables.
摘要:
Systems and methods are provided for simulating a portfolio risk of a portfolio managed according to one or more portfolio management rules. An initial holding amount of an investment instrument is received, and a portfolio management rule is received. One or more risk factors are simulated a first time period into the future. An adjustment amount is determined based on the portfolio management rule and the one or more risk factors simulated a first time period into the future and the holding amount of the investment instrument is adjusted based on adjustment amount. The one or more risk factors are simulated a second time period into the future, and a portfolio risk value is calculated based on the adjusted holding amount and the one or more risk factors simulated a second time period into the future.
摘要:
Systems and methods are provided for providing secure transmission of software code, which includes a mathematical function, from a first computer to a second computer so that the mathematical function's content cannot be determined at the second computer. A method includes generating a secure container, where the secure container includes an encrypted representation of the mathematical function and metadata identifying the mathematical function encrypted in the secure container. The method further includes providing the secure container from the first computer to the second computer over a communication transmission medium, where the secure container is accessed at the second computer using the metadata to identify the mathematical function, and where the mathematical function contained within the secure container is decrypted and incorporated into program code in a compiled form so that the mathematical function can be used but the mathematical function's content cannot be determined at the second computer.
摘要:
Systems and methods are provided for providing secure transmission of software code, which includes a mathematical function, from a first computer to a second computer so that the mathematical function's content cannot be determined at the second computer. A method includes generating a secure container, where the secure container includes an encrypted representation of the mathematical function and metadata identifying the mathematical function encrypted in the secure container. The method further includes providing the secure container from the first computer to the second computer over a communication transmission medium, where the secure container is accessed at the second computer using the metadata to identify the mathematical function, and where the mathematical function contained within the secure container is decrypted and incorporated into program code in a compiled form so that the mathematical function can be used but the mathematical function's content cannot be determined at the second computer.
摘要:
A method is provided for analyzing operational risk associated with one or more organizations, comprising receiving operational loss data from a plurality of organizations at a third-party risk management entity that is a separate entity from the plurality of organizations. The operational loss data includes confidential information regarding one or more of the plurality of organizations. The data received from the plurality of organizations, including the confidential information, is pooled. The pooled data is used to generate an operational risk model for one of the plurality of organizations, and this operational risk model is transmitted to the organization. A system for modeling operational risk for a plurality of organizations is provided, comprising a first data store configured to collect data regarding operational losses from the plurality of organizations, whose data includes confidential information regarding one or more of the organizations. The system includes software instructions configured to pool the operational loss data collected from the plurality of organizations and software instructions configured to generate operational risk models for the organizations using the pooled data, wherein the confidential information is not removed from the pooled data. The system also includes a second data store configured to store the generated models.
摘要:
Systems and methods are provided for determining a loss mitigation reserve requirement based on a risk measure estimation and a confidence interval associated with the risk measure estimation. Distribution parameters of a frequency model and distribution parameters of a severity model are determined, and a covariance matrix representing the determined parameters of the distribution of the frequency model and the determined parameters of distribution of the severity model is generated. One or more analytical derivatives of a cumulative distribution function of the frequency model, one or more analytical derivatives of a cumulative distribution function of the severity model, and a parameter covariance matrix are calculated. A confidence interval is computed for the risk measure estimation based on a vector of derivatives of a cumulative distribution function.
摘要:
Systems and methods are provided for determining a loss mitigation reserve requirement based on a risk measure estimation and a confidence interval associated with the risk measure estimation. Distribution parameters of a frequency model and distribution parameters of a severity model are determined, and a covariance matrix representing the determined parameters of the distribution of the frequency model and the determined parameters of distribution of the severity model is generated. One or more analytical derivatives of a cumulative distribution function of the frequency model, one or more analytical derivatives of a cumulative distribution function of the severity model, and a parameter covariance matrix are calculated. A confidence interval is computed for the risk measure estimation based on a vector of derivatives of a cumulative distribution function.