Methods and apparatus are provided for read retry operations that estimate written data based on syndrome weights. One method comprises reading a codeword from a memory multiple times using multiple read reference voltages; obtaining a syndrome weight for each of the readings of the codeword; identifying a given reading of the codeword having a substantially minimum syndrome weight; and estimating a written value of the codeword based on the given reading. Two cell voltage probability distributions of cell voltages are optionally calculated for each possible cell state of the memory, based on the estimated written value and plurality of readings of the codeword. The cell voltage probability distributions are used to (i) dynamically select log likelihood ratio values for a failing page, (ii) determine a read reference voltage that gives a desired log likelihood ratio value, or (iii) dynamically select log likelihood ratio values for the page populations associated with the distributions.