A processing system includes one or more processing units to perform operations and one or more sensors to measure a temperature concurrently with the one or more processing units performing the operations. The processing system also includes a controller to receive feedback indicating the temperature and to determine a peak temperature and a thermal time constant for heating of the processing system based on a comparison of the measured temperature to a first temperature that is predicted based on the peak temperature and a previously determined thermal time constant for heating. Some embodiments of the controller can control a performance state of the processing system based on the peak temperature and the thermal time constant for heating of the processing system.