A method and system for calculating probability of success or failure for a lithographic process due to stochastic variations of the lithographic process are disclosed. Lithography is a process that uses light to transfer a geometric pattern from a photomask, based on a layout design, to a resist on a substrate. The lithographic process is subject to random stochastic phenomena, such as photon shot noise and stochastic phenomena in the resist process and resist development, with the resulting stochastic randomness potentially becoming a major challenge. The stochastic phenomena are modeled using a stochastic model, such as a random field model, that models stochastic randomness the exposure and resist process. The stochastic model inputs light exposure and resist parameters and definitions of success of success or failure as to the lithographic process, and outputs a probability distribution function of deprotection concentration indicative of success or failure probability of the lithographic process. In turn, the probability distribution function may be used to modify one or both of the light exposure and resist parameters in order to reduce the effect of stochastic randomness on the lithographic process.