A method for providing a bin ratio forecast at an early stage of integrated circuit device manufacturing processes is disclosed. The method comprises collecting historical data from one or more processed wafer lots; collect measurement data from one or more skew wafer lots; generating an estimated baseline distribution from the collected historical data and collected measurement data; generating an estimated performance distribution based on one or more specified parameters and the generated estimated baseline distribution; determining a bin ratio forecast by applying a bin definition and a yield degradation factor estimation to the generated estimated performance distribution; determining one or more production targets based on the bin ratio forecast; and processing one or more wafers based on the one or more determined production targets.