A method for assessing a cold start emission reduction (CSER) strategy applied to an engine system is provided. The method determines a first accumulation value based on an estimated output signal that would result from applying a first control command to the engine system. The method determines a second accumulation value based on a measured output signal resulting from applying a second control command that implements the CSER strategy to the engine system. The method compares the first accumulation value and the second accumulation value. The method determines whether the applying the second command to the engine system achieved a performance threshold of the CSER strategy based on the comparing.