Dual interactive visualization system for sensitivity analysis to risk preferences for decision support

    公开(公告)号:US10713303B2

    公开(公告)日:2020-07-14

    申请号:US14991117

    申请日:2016-01-08

    IPC分类号: G06F16/904

    摘要: A system, computer program product, and method is described to provide a visualization tool which portrays the certain equivalent for one or more hypothetical (i.e. synthetic) or real probability distributions p(m), and optionally allows the user to manipulate that representation, resulting in associated changes to the underlying utility function u(m). In a first example, the risk preference visualization tool allows one to explore how the certain equivalent depends upon the probability distribution p(m), for a fixed utility function u(m). In a second example, the risk preference visualization tool allows one to explore how the certain equivalent depends upon the utility function u(m), assuming one or more fixed probability distributions p1(m), p2 (m), etc. In a third example, the decision maker can provide feedback through the visualization tool that would cause their utility function to be modified.

    MULTI-ATTRIBUTE EVALUATION OF NARRATIVES USING EVENT DATASETS

    公开(公告)号:US20190197446A1

    公开(公告)日:2019-06-27

    申请号:US15850100

    申请日:2017-12-21

    IPC分类号: G06Q10/06 G06N5/02 G06F17/30

    摘要: Techniques for multi-attribute evaluation of narratives are provided. Inputs are obtained representing: (i) at least one historical dataset of events; (ii) a set of candidate narratives, wherein each candidate narrative is a potential future event sequence; and (iii) a query, wherein the query comprises one or more events of interest to a user. Attribute scores are computed for at least a subset of the candidate narratives based on at least a portion of the obtained input. One of the attribute scores comprises a plausibility attribute score representing a measure estimating the likelihood that a given candidate narrative will occur in the future. Another one of the attribute scores comprises a surprise attribute score representing a measure estimating how surprising a given candidate narrative will be to the user.

    RAILWAY TRACK GEOMETRY DEFECT MODELING FOR PREDICTING DETERIORATION, DERAILMENT RISK, AND OPTIMAL REPAIR
    16.
    发明申请
    RAILWAY TRACK GEOMETRY DEFECT MODELING FOR PREDICTING DETERIORATION, DERAILMENT RISK, AND OPTIMAL REPAIR 有权
    铁路轨迹几何预测建模,预测风险和最佳维修

    公开(公告)号:US20140200827A1

    公开(公告)日:2014-07-17

    申请号:US13906883

    申请日:2013-05-31

    IPC分类号: B61K9/08

    摘要: Geo-defect repair modeling is provided. A method includes logically dividing a railroad network according to spatial and temporal dimensions with respect to historical data collected. The spatial dimensions include line segments of a specified length and the temporal dimensions include inspection run data for inspections performed for each of the line segments over a period of time. The method also includes creating a track deterioration model from the historical data, identifying geo-defects occurring at each inspection run from the track deterioration model, calculating a track deterioration condition from the track deterioration model by analyzing quantified changes in the geo-defects measured at each inspection run, and calculating a derailment risk based on track conditions determined from the inspection run data and the track deterioration condition. The method further includes determining a repair decision for each of the geo-defects based on the derailment risk and costs associated with previous comparable repairs.

    摘要翻译: 提供了地质缺陷修复建模。 一种方法包括根据收集的历史数据根据空间和时间维度逻辑地划分铁路网络。 空间维度包括指定长度的线段,并且时间维度包括在一段时间内为每个线段执行检查的检查运行数据。 该方法还包括根据历史数据创建轨道退化模型,从轨道劣化模型中识别在每个检测运行中发生的地质缺陷,通过分析在轨迹退化模型中测量的地质缺陷的量化变化, 每次检查运行,并根据从检查运行数据和轨道劣化状况确定的轨道条件计算脱轨风险。 该方法还包括基于脱轨风险和与先前相似维修相关联的成本来确定每个地理缺陷的修复决策。

    Capturing Ordinal Historical Dependence in Graphical Event Models with Tree Representations

    公开(公告)号:US20230123421A1

    公开(公告)日:2023-04-20

    申请号:US17503557

    申请日:2021-10-18

    IPC分类号: G06N20/00 G06K9/62 G06N7/00

    摘要: A computer system, computer program product, and computer-implemented method are provided that includes learning a tree ordered graphical event model from an event dataset. Temporal relationships between one or more events in received temporal event data is modeled, and an ordered graphical event model (OGEM) graph is learned. The learned OGEM graph is configured to capture ordinal historical dependence. Leveraging the learned OGEM graph, a parameter sharing architecture is learned, including order dependent statistical and causal co-occurrence relationships among event types. A control signal to an operatively coupled event device that is associated with at least one event type reflected in the learned parameter sharing environment is dynamically issued. The control signal is configured to selectively control an event injection.

    USING NEGATIVE EVIDENCE TO PREDICT EVENT DATASETS

    公开(公告)号:US20210383194A1

    公开(公告)日:2021-12-09

    申请号:US16894970

    申请日:2020-06-08

    IPC分类号: G06N3/04 G06N3/08

    摘要: A computer-implemented method is presented for learning relationships between multiple event types by employing a multi-channel neural graphical event model (MCN-GEM). The method includes receiving, by a computing device, time-stamped, asynchronous, irregularly spaced event epochs, generating, by the computing device, at least one fake epoch between each inter-event interval, wherein fake epochs represent negative evidence, feeding the event epochs and the at least one fake epoch into long short term memory (LSTM) cells, computing hidden states for each of the event epochs and the at least one fake epoch, feeding the hidden states into spatial and temporal attention models, and employing an average attention across all event epochs to generate causal graphs representing causal relationships between all the event epochs.