摘要:
Techniques for multi-attribute evaluation of narratives are provided. Inputs are obtained representing: (i) at least one historical dataset of events; (ii) a set of candidate narratives, wherein each candidate narrative is a potential future event sequence; and (iii) a query, wherein the query comprises one or more events of interest to a user. Attribute scores are computed for at least a subset of the candidate narratives based on at least a portion of the obtained input. One of the attribute scores comprises a plausibility attribute score representing a measure estimating the likelihood that a given candidate narrative will occur in the future. Another one of the attribute scores comprises a surprise attribute score representing a measure estimating how surprising a given candidate narrative will be to the user.
摘要:
A method, computer program product, and/or computer system improves a future efficiency of a specific system. One or more processors receive multiple historical data snapshots that describe past operational states of a specific system. The processor(s) identify a time series pattern for the time series of data in the multiple historical snapshots and calculate their variability. The processor(s) then determine that the variability in a first sub-set of the time series pattern is larger than a predefined value, and determine that future values of the first set of the time series pattern are a set of non-forecastable future values. The processor(s) also determine that the variability in a second sub-set of the time series pattern for the data is smaller than the predefined value, and utilizes this second sub-set to modify the specific system at a current time.
摘要:
A graphical event model method, system, and computer program product, include learning statistical and causal co-occurrence relationships among multiple event-types of data, requiring no complex input, and generating a representation that explains a mutual dynamic of the multiple event-types in a form of a graphical event model.
摘要:
One or more processors determine a financial target for a plurality of business accounts across a plurality of product brands that are included in a business account level of an organizational hierarchy of a business organization. The organizational hierarchy includes a plurality of levels. One or more processors determine respective financial targets and quotas for a plurality of nodes included in a level of the organizational hierarchy. One or more processors determine respective financial targets for combinations of business accounts and product brands. The determination of the financial targets is based on a statistical model that is fitted at a middle level of the organizational hierarchy, and a risk-based stochastic optimization that is used to set financial targets and quotas at one or more levels of the organizational hierarchy.
摘要:
Analyzing complex systems by receiving labeled event data describing events occurring in association with a complex system, generating a first machine learning model according to the distribution of labeled event data, receiving state variable transition data describing state variable transitions occurring in association with a complex system, training a second machine learning model according to a combination of a distribution of state variable transitions and the first machine learning model, and using the second machine learning model to predict the effects of events upon state variables within the complex system according to new state variable transition and new labeled event data.
摘要:
Geo-defect repair modeling is provided. A method includes logically dividing a railroad network according to spatial and temporal dimensions with respect to historical data collected. The spatial dimensions include line segments of a specified length and the temporal dimensions include inspection run data for inspections performed for each of the line segments over a period of time. The method also includes creating a track deterioration model from the historical data, identifying geo-defects occurring at each inspection run from the track deterioration model, calculating a track deterioration condition from the track deterioration model by analyzing quantified changes in the geo-defects measured at each inspection run, and calculating a derailment risk based on track conditions determined from the inspection run data and the track deterioration condition. The method further includes determining a repair decision for each of the geo-defects based on the derailment risk and costs associated with previous comparable repairs.
摘要:
A method includes receiving a given work product plan specifying a set of constituents to be used in forming a given work product, each constituent having one or more properties, the given work product being associated with a given class of work products. The method also includes obtaining information associated with one or more existing work product plans for one or more existing work products in the given class from a knowledge database and selecting proportions of the set of constituents to be used in forming the given work product based at least in part on distributions of characteristics associated with types of constituents used in forming existing work products in the given class and of properties of constituents used in forming existing work products in the given class. The method further includes generating an updated work product plan for the given work product specifying the selected proportions of the set of constituents to be used in forming the given work product.
摘要:
A system, method, and/or computer program product that provides a first table including a plurality of alternative choices, each alternative choice including a plurality of attributes, and analyzes the first table to identify a set of alternatives of the plurality of alternative choices. The analyzing includes identifying alternatives that are practically dominated in accordance with a probability distribution over user preferences. The system, method, and/or computer program product may also recommend an even swap based on the probability distribution over the user preferences. Next, an input is solicited by displaying the set of alternatives. In response to receiving the input responsive to the displaying, zero or more of the plurality of alternative choices are removed from the table.
摘要:
A system, method, and/or computer program product that provides a first table including a plurality of alternative choices, each alternative choice including a plurality of attributes, and analyzes the first table to identify a set of alternatives of the plurality of alternative choices. The analyzing includes identifying alternatives that are practically dominated in accordance with a probability distribution over user preferences. The system, method, and/or computer program product may also recommend an even swap based on the probability distribution over the user preferences. Next, an input is solicited by displaying the set of alternatives. In response to receiving the input responsive to the displaying, zero or more of the plurality of alternative choices are removed from the table.
摘要:
A computer implemented method of modeling agent interactions, includes receiving event occurrence data. One or more parent-event types and one or more corresponding child-event types are learned from the event occurrence data. A timeline of the one or more parent-event types and one or more corresponding child-event types is modeled from the event occurrence data. Agent interactions are predicted based on an order of the parent-event types in a predetermined history window.